[At-Large] They're out of IPv4 Addresses!
dogwallah at gmail.com
Sun Sep 16 21:14:16 UTC 2012
On Saturday, September 15, 2012, Holly Raiche wrote:
> Hi Carlton
> There is a twist to the IPv4/v6 discussion - and it's about money
> (surprise!) Geoff Huston (our own internet pioneer/guru) asks why the
> carriers aren't migrating to v6 - and instead dealing with the address
> shortage (at least in the APNIC region) through NATing. As he explains,
> with NATing, the carriers gain information about what IP addresses are
> going where - information they can flog to advertisers.
Do you have a link for this?
> It's part of the money shift from the carriers in an analogue, circuit
> switched world where the carriers got the money, to an IP world where they
> are missing out and the revenue is going to the content providers. (the
> WCIT issue about accounting rates no longer providing the carriers with the
> money they used to collect is relevant here). So the carriers are making
> do with NATing instead of migrating to the v6 world where, once again, one
> IP address connects directly to another address and no NATting (and no
> collecting information about users) in between between (except in !
> the usual circumstances of corporates, etc)
> On 16/09/2012, at 6:11 AM, Carlton Samuels wrote:
> > Hi Sala:
> > You misinterpret my skepticism as denial. Wrong.
> > I'm there with you on all the facts you quote. Yes too, on all the
> > you finger. My skepticism is born of the big 'the sky is falling'
> > And an analysis that is predicated on immediate and/or imminent scarcity.
> > [Scarcity as in demand driven!]
> > For the last several years, I've studiously followed the ARIN policy
> > discussions. Its only after you see the details and couple that to a few
> > other facts that it jumps out at ya; the details just don't support the
> > great alarm hurry-up-and-do-this. Look critically at some of the data in
> > context of where access and demand are growing; Africa and Asia. Then
> > have another think.
> > No, we will not have a collapse anytime soon. No, I doubt if IPv4
> > addresses will ever be totally exhausted. At least not if some of the
> > policy positions I see being promoted in the ARIN region are implemented!
> > Yes, if and when that time comes, if someone belly up to your favourite
> > and asks for a **bank* *of addresses, here's the likely response, "well,
> > we ain't got that kind. But here's another kind works just as well if not
> > better! Machine you have might even be prepped for it, see. But you
> > have to do a few little things to let her fly". That conversation will
> > take place with a mom and pop operation, trust me. End user networks are
> > not provisioned as the popular myth says.
> > Troll the lists and you will see this is one topic I've studiously stayed
> > away from. Not because I don't understand the issues; I ran service
> > provisioning businesses absolutely dependent on ready availability of IP
> > addresses. It is because I remain underwhelmed by the hype.
> > The facts tend to the inconvenient. To the hype, that is. So we are
> > to disagree, albeit agreeably. Nope, the hype on this is over the top.
> > And for the life of me I can't figure out why. In the Y2K storm I knew
> > what it was; there were folks hellbent on picking some pockets.
> > Maybe its because I am at a point where I've learned to distrust all
> > revealed wisdom and orthodoxy. So I might be the heretic here. Oh well,
> > if salvation comes......
> > - Carlton
> > ==============================
> > Carlton A Samuels
> > Mobile: 876-818-1799
> > *Strategy, Planning, Governance, Assessment & Turnaround*
> > =============================
> > On Sat, Sep 15, 2012 at 2:21 PM, Salanieta T. Tamanikaiwaimaro <
> > salanieta.tamanikaiwaimaro at gmail.com> wrote:
> >> Snip the whole thing always brings me back to that Y2K jingle.
> >> I would disagree and here's why.
> >> *Demographics*
> >> As I write this email, the world's population according to the
> >> Reference Bureau is 7,087,683,026 as at 6:18am Sunday morning on 16th
> >> September, 2012. The World Mortality Report of 2011 rates (produced by
> >> Department of Economic Social Affairs by its Population division) shows
> >> that over time the mortality rates have generally gone down although
> >> are still wide disparities in levels of mortality across regions. See:
> >> *End Users*
> >> Whilst there are 7 billion people on the planet, the World Internet
> >> Statistics (IWS) suggest that there are 2,267,233,742 internet users as
> >> December, 31, 2011. See: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm.
> >> These users distributed would be something like this:-
> >> AFRALO region - 6.2%
> >> APRALO region - 49%
> >> EURALO region - 22.1%
> >> LACRALO region - 10.4%
> >> NARALO region - 12%
> >> *Can current supply meet demand?*
> >> As the push for Universal Service continues to grow as we have seen from
> >> recent trend
"A name indicates what we seek. An address indicates where it is. A route
indicates how we get there." Jon Postel
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