[lac-discuss-es] Son de direcciones IPv4!

Sab Sep 15 20:16:24 UTC 2012

[[--Translated text (en -> es)--]]

 Asunto: Re: Son de direcciones IPv4! 
 De: carlton.samuels en gmail.com

 Hola Sala: 
 Usted malinterpretar mi escepticismo como negación. Wrong. 

 Yo estoy ahí con ustedes en todos los hechos que usted cita. Sí también, en todas las tendencias 
 de su digitación. Mi escepticismo nace de la gran 'el cielo se está cayendo' bombos y platillos. 
 Y un análisis que se basa en la escasez inmediata y / o inminente. 
 [La escasez como en función de la demanda!] 

 Durante los últimos años, he seguido escrupulosamente la política de ARIN 
 discusiones. Su solamente después de ver los detalles y la pareja que a unos pocos 
 otro hecho que salta a la vista ya, los detalles no son compatibles con el 
 prisa-para arriba-y-hacer-este gran alarma. Mirar críticamente algunos de los datos en 
 contexto de que el acceso y la demanda está creciendo, África y Asia. Entonces 
 haber otro piensa. 

 No, no vamos a tener un colapso en el corto plazo. No, dudo que IPv4 
 direcciones nunca será totalmente agotado.Al menos no si algunos de los 
 posiciones políticas que veo están promoviendo en la región de ARIN se implementan! 

 Sí, siempre y cuando llegue ese momento, si alguien vientre hasta su RIR favorito 
 y pide a ** ** banco de direcciones, aquí está la respuesta probable: &quot;bueno, 
 es que no tiene ese tipo. Pero aquí hay otro tipo funciona igual de bien si no 
 mejor! Máquina que haya incluso podría ser preparado para ello, consulte. Pero es posible que 
 tenemos que hacer algunas pequeñas cosas para que su marcha &quot;. Esa conversación no se 
 llevará a cabo con una operación de mamá y papá, créeme. Redes de usuarios finales son 
 No le suministre como el mito popular dice. 

 Troll de las listas y verÃ¡s esto es un tema que he estado estudiadamente 
 lejos de. No porque no entienden los temas; corrÃ servicio 
 aprovisionamiento de negocios totalmente dependientes de la disponibilidad de la propiedad intelectual 
 direcciones. Esto se debe a que siguen decepcionados con el bombo. 

 Los hechos tienden a la inconveniente. Para el bombo, eso es. AsÃ que estamos de acuerdo 
 no estar de acuerdo, aunque agradablemente. No, la exageraciÃ³n en esto es en la parte superior. 
 Y para la vida de mÃ no puedo entender por quÃ©.En la tormenta Y2K sabÃa 
 lo que era; habÃa gente empeÃ±ado en recoger algunas bolsas. 

 Tal vez sea porque estoy en un punto en el que he aprendido a desconfiar de todo 
 revela la sabidurÃa y la ortodoxia. AsÃ que podrÃa ser el hereje aquÃ. Oh, bueno, 
 si la salvaciÃ³n viene ...... 

 - Carlton 

 ============================== 
 Carlton Samuels A 
 MÃ³vil: 876-818-1799 
 * Estrategia, PlanificaciÃ³n, Gobierno, EvaluaciÃ³n y Turnaround * 
 ============================= 

 En Tue, 15 de septiembre 2012 a las 2:21 PM, Salanieta T. Tamanikaiwaimaro &lt; 
 salanieta.tamanikaiwaimaro @ gmail.com&gt; escribiÃ³: 

> Snip the whole thing always brings me back to that Y2K jingle.
>
> I would disagree and here's why.
>
> *Demographics*
> As I write this email, the world's population according to the Population
> Reference Bureau is  7,087,683,026 as at 6:18am Sunday morning on 16th
> September, 2012. The World Mortality Report of 2011 rates (produced by the
> Department of  Economic Social Affairs by its Population division) shows
> that over time the mortality rates have generally gone down although there
> are still wide disparities in levels of mortality across regions. See:
>
> http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldmortalityreport2011/World%20Mortality%20Report%202011.pdf
>
> *End Users*
> Whilst there are 7 billion people on the planet, the World Internet
> Statistics (IWS) suggest that there are 2,267,233,742 internet users as at
> December, 31, 2011. See: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm.
>
> These users distributed would be something like this:-
> AFRALO region - 6.2%
> APRALO region - 49%
> EURALO region - 22.1%
> LACRALO region - 10.4%
> NARALO region - 12%
>
> *Can current supply meet demand?*
> As the push for Universal Service continues to grow as we have seen from
> recent trends in ICT development, liberalisation of markets, competition,
> it is generally expected that the end users will grow. There already is a
> demand on Internet Address allocations based on consumption. The pull on
> address spaces is also linked to "consumerism". The innovations in science
> and technology have brought us smart phones, smart computers, smart
> refrigerators, smart homes, smart cars means that there is a "level of
> demand" coming from the globe on a "finite pool of resources". We see
> trends where as Innovations increase eg. Applications (App) and a single
> phone can have an average of 5 Apps. Internet Traffic is definitely growing
> because of many reasons, the desire to communicate, content driven
> applications being some of the reasons. Whether it is an  entrepreneur away
> on a business trip can with a few strokes be able to check procurement of
> goods, what's in the cash register etc or a Surgeon performing remote tests
> and/or surgery, one thing is certain, consumption of the Internet will
> continue to grow.
>
> So the issue becomes, can "Supply meet demand"? Maybe and only for a little
> while. There are Network Address Translators (NATs) that can only do so
> much for a little while but all it is really at the end of the day is
> buying time and waiting for the inevitable which is the pool of IPv4
> resources will run out.
>
> *The growth in global demand to communicate implies the need for
> transition*
> For as long as the assumption is true that internet usage will grow there
> will be a strain on the address allocation. There are variables that affect
> demographics droughts, tsunamis, global food crisis, water scarcity,
> climate change, migration, conflicts and wars that affect demographics but
> a steward and in this case RIPE NCC will try to ensure that there is
> sufficient preparation that existing resources are conserved within reason
> and at the same time encourage transition.
>
> The threat aside from running out of internet addresses on the IPv4 front
> is the ability for Networks not to be able to communicate. The IPv4 Network
> cannot communicate with the IPv6 and there are ways to address these where
> network owners can elect to opt for which ever methods of transition suits
> them.
>
> Fortunately, the good news is that to be able to account for the current
> and future demands on address space allocations, the IPv6 address
> allocations were designed to enable seamless communication. So the only
> challenge now is organising IPv4 to IPv6 transition. The key word is a
> transition. As for end users there are many things that we can do as
> ordinary end users to help prepare for the transition but that is for
> another time.
>
> Whilst some may say, that it's just vendors trying to sell their wares. The
> reality is that vendors will always try to sell their wares and you can
> help keep them accountable by getting your region and network providers to
> publish feedback on their wares See:
>
> http://labs.ripe.net/Members/mirjam/ipv6-cpe-survey-updated-january-2011/?searchterm=None
>
> Best Regards,
> Sala
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>

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