[lac-discuss-en] [At-Large] They're out of IPv4 Addresses!

Sat Sep 15 20:11:14 UTC 2012

Hi Sala:
You misinterpret my skepticism as denial. Wrong.

I'm there with you on all the facts you quote.  Yes too, on all the trends
you finger. My skepticism is born of the big 'the sky is falling'  hoopla.
 And an analysis that is predicated on immediate and/or imminent scarcity.
 [Scarcity as in demand driven!]

For the last several years, I've studiously followed the ARIN policy
discussions.  Its only after you see the details and couple that to a few
other facts that it jumps out at ya; the details just don't support the
great alarm hurry-up-and-do-this.  Look critically at some of the data in
context of where access and demand  are growing; Africa and Asia.  Then
have another think.

No, we will not have a collapse anytime soon.  No, I doubt if IPv4
addresses will ever be totally exhausted. At least not if some of the
policy positions I see being promoted in the ARIN region are implemented!

Yes, if and when that time comes, if someone belly up to your favourite RIR
and asks for a **bank* *of addresses,  here's the likely response, "well,
we ain't got that kind. But here's another kind works just as well if not
better!  Machine you have might even be prepped for it, see.  But you might
have to do a few little things to let her fly".  That conversation will not
take place with a mom and pop operation, trust me. End user networks are
not provisioned as the popular myth says.

Troll the lists and you will see this is one topic I've studiously stayed
away from.  Not because I don't understand the issues; I ran service
provisioning businesses absolutely dependent on ready availability of IP
addresses.  It is because I remain underwhelmed by the hype.

The facts tend to the inconvenient.  To the hype, that is. So we are agreed
to disagree, albeit agreeably.  Nope, the hype on this is over the top.
 And for the life of me I can't figure out why.  In the Y2K storm I knew
what it was; there were folks hellbent on picking some pockets.

Maybe its because I am at a point where I've learned to distrust all
revealed wisdom and orthodoxy.  So I might be the heretic here.  Oh well,
if salvation comes......

- Carlton

==============================
Carlton A Samuels
Mobile: 876-818-1799
*Strategy, Planning, Governance, Assessment & Turnaround*
=============================

On Sat, Sep 15, 2012 at 2:21 PM, Salanieta T. Tamanikaiwaimaro <
salanieta.tamanikaiwaimaro at gmail.com> wrote:

> Snip the whole thing always brings me back to that Y2K jingle.
>
> I would disagree and here's why.
>
> *Demographics*
> As I write this email, the world's population according to the Population
> Reference Bureau is  7,087,683,026 as at 6:18am Sunday morning on 16th
> September, 2012. The World Mortality Report of 2011 rates (produced by the
> Department of  Economic Social Affairs by its Population division) shows
> that over time the mortality rates have generally gone down although there
> are still wide disparities in levels of mortality across regions. See:
>
> http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldmortalityreport2011/World%20Mortality%20Report%202011.pdf
>
> *End Users*
> Whilst there are 7 billion people on the planet, the World Internet
> Statistics (IWS) suggest that there are 2,267,233,742 internet users as at
> December, 31, 2011. See: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm.
>
> These users distributed would be something like this:-
> AFRALO region - 6.2%
> APRALO region - 49%
> EURALO region - 22.1%
> LACRALO region - 10.4%
> NARALO region - 12%
>
> *Can current supply meet demand?*
> As the push for Universal Service continues to grow as we have seen from
> recent trends in ICT development, liberalisation of markets, competition,
> it is generally expected that the end users will grow. There already is a
> demand on Internet Address allocations based on consumption. The pull on
> address spaces is also linked to "consumerism". The innovations in science
> and technology have brought us smart phones, smart computers, smart
> refrigerators, smart homes, smart cars means that there is a "level of
> demand" coming from the globe on a "finite pool of resources". We see
> trends where as Innovations increase eg. Applications (App) and a single
> phone can have an average of 5 Apps. Internet Traffic is definitely growing
> because of many reasons, the desire to communicate, content driven
> applications being some of the reasons. Whether it is an  entrepreneur away
> on a business trip can with a few strokes be able to check procurement of
> goods, what's in the cash register etc or a Surgeon performing remote tests
> and/or surgery, one thing is certain, consumption of the Internet will
> continue to grow.
>
> So the issue becomes, can "Supply meet demand"? Maybe and only for a little
> while. There are Network Address Translators (NATs) that can only do so
> much for a little while but all it is really at the end of the day is
> buying time and waiting for the inevitable which is the pool of IPv4
> resources will run out.
>
> *The growth in global demand to communicate implies the need for
> transition*
> For as long as the assumption is true that internet usage will grow there
> will be a strain on the address allocation. There are variables that affect
> demographics droughts, tsunamis, global food crisis, water scarcity,
> climate change, migration, conflicts and wars that affect demographics but
> a steward and in this case RIPE NCC will try to ensure that there is
> sufficient preparation that existing resources are conserved within reason
> and at the same time encourage transition.
>
> The threat aside from running out of internet addresses on the IPv4 front
> is the ability for Networks not to be able to communicate. The IPv4 Network
> cannot communicate with the IPv6 and there are ways to address these where
> network owners can elect to opt for which ever methods of transition suits
> them.
>
> Fortunately, the good news is that to be able to account for the current
> and future demands on address space allocations, the IPv6 address
> allocations were designed to enable seamless communication. So the only
> challenge now is organising IPv4 to IPv6 transition. The key word is a
> transition. As for end users there are many things that we can do as
> ordinary end users to help prepare for the transition but that is for
> another time.
>
> Whilst some may say, that it's just vendors trying to sell their wares. The
> reality is that vendors will always try to sell their wares and you can
> help keep them accountable by getting your region and network providers to
> publish feedback on their wares See:
>
> http://labs.ripe.net/Members/mirjam/ipv6-cpe-survey-updated-january-2011/?searchterm=None
>
> Best Regards,
> Sala
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