[At-Large] They're out of IPv4 Addresses!

Mon Sep 17 10:36:25 UTC 2012

On Mon, Sep 17, 2012 at 9:14 AM, McTim <dogwallah at gmail.com> wrote:

> Hi,
>
> On Saturday, September 15, 2012, Holly Raiche wrote:
>
> > Hi Carlton
> >
> > There is a twist to the IPv4/v6 discussion - and it's about money
> > (surprise!)  Geoff Huston (our own internet pioneer/guru) asks why the
> > carriers aren't migrating to v6 - and instead dealing with the address
> > shortage (at least in the APNIC region) through NATing.  As he explains,
> > with NATing, the carriers gain information about what IP addresses are
> > going where - information they can flog to advertisers.
>
>
>
>
> Do you have a link for this?
>

Hi McTim as promised, I asked Geoff and this is the link he gave me:
http://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2012-09/telecommsandip.html

There's a disclaimer below to say that this is strictly his opinion and not
the opinion of APNIC etc.

Sala

> Rgds,
>
> McTim
>
>
>
> > It's part of the money shift from the carriers in an analogue, circuit
> > switched world where the carriers got the money, to an IP world where
> they
> > are missing out and the revenue is going to the content providers. (the
> > WCIT issue about accounting rates no longer providing the carriers with
> the
> > money they used to collect is relevant here).  So the carriers are making
> > do with NATing instead of migrating to the v6 world where, once again,
> one
> > IP address connects directly to another address and no NATting (and no
> > collecting information about users) in between between (except in !
> >  the usual circumstances of corporates, etc)
> >
> > Holly
> >
> >
> > On 16/09/2012, at 6:11 AM, Carlton Samuels wrote:
> >
> > > Hi Sala:
> > > You misinterpret my skepticism as denial. Wrong.
> > >
> > > I'm there with you on all the facts you quote.  Yes too, on all the
> > trends
> > > you finger. My skepticism is born of the big 'the sky is falling'
> >  hoopla.
> > > And an analysis that is predicated on immediate and/or imminent
> scarcity.
> > > [Scarcity as in demand driven!]
> > >
> > > For the last several years, I've studiously followed the ARIN policy
> > > discussions.  Its only after you see the details and couple that to a
> few
> > > other facts that it jumps out at ya; the details just don't support the
> > > great alarm hurry-up-and-do-this.  Look critically at some of the data
> in
> > > context of where access and demand  are growing; Africa and Asia.  Then
> > > have another think.
> > >
> > > No, we will not have a collapse anytime soon.  No, I doubt if IPv4
> > > addresses will ever be totally exhausted. At least not if some of the
> > > policy positions I see being promoted in the ARIN region are
> implemented!
> > >
> > > Yes, if and when that time comes, if someone belly up to your favourite
> > RIR
> > > and asks for a **bank* *of addresses,  here's the likely response,
> "well,
> > > we ain't got that kind. But here's another kind works just as well if
> not
> > > better!  Machine you have might even be prepped for it, see.  But you
> > might
> > > have to do a few little things to let her fly".  That conversation will
> > not
> > > take place with a mom and pop operation, trust me. End user networks
> are
> > > not provisioned as the popular myth says.
> > >
> > > Troll the lists and you will see this is one topic I've studiously
> stayed
> > > away from.  Not because I don't understand the issues; I ran service
> > > provisioning businesses absolutely dependent on ready availability of
> IP
> > > addresses.  It is because I remain underwhelmed by the hype.
> > >
> > > The facts tend to the inconvenient.  To the hype, that is. So we are
> > agreed
> > > to disagree, albeit agreeably.  Nope, the hype on this is over the top.
> > > And for the life of me I can't figure out why.  In the Y2K storm I knew
> > > what it was; there were folks hellbent on picking some pockets.
> > >
> > > Maybe its because I am at a point where I've learned to distrust all
> > > revealed wisdom and orthodoxy.  So I might be the heretic here.  Oh
> well,
> > > if salvation comes......
> > >
> > > - Carlton
> > >
> > > ==============================
> > > Carlton A Samuels
> > > Mobile: 876-818-1799
> > > *Strategy, Planning, Governance, Assessment & Turnaround*
> > > =============================
> > >
> > >
> > > On Sat, Sep 15, 2012 at 2:21 PM, Salanieta T. Tamanikaiwaimaro <
> > > salanieta.tamanikaiwaimaro at gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > >> Snip the whole thing always brings me back to that Y2K jingle.
> > >>
> > >> I would disagree and here's why.
> > >>
> > >> *Demographics*
> > >> As I write this email, the world's population according to the
> > Population
> > >> Reference Bureau is  7,087,683,026 as at 6:18am Sunday morning on 16th
> > >> September, 2012. The World Mortality Report of 2011 rates (produced by
> > the
> > >> Department of  Economic Social Affairs by its Population division)
> shows
> > >> that over time the mortality rates have generally gone down although
> > there
> > >> are still wide disparities in levels of mortality across regions. See:
> > >>
> > >>
> >
> http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldmortalityreport2011/World%20Mortality%20Report%202011.pdf
> > >>
> > >> *End Users*
> > >> Whilst there are 7 billion people on the planet, the World Internet
> > >> Statistics (IWS) suggest that there are 2,267,233,742 internet users
> as
> > at
> > >> December, 31, 2011. See: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm.
> > >>
> > >> These users distributed would be something like this:-
> > >> AFRALO region - 6.2%
> > >> APRALO region - 49%
> > >> EURALO region - 22.1%
> > >> LACRALO region - 10.4%
> > >> NARALO region - 12%
> > >>
> > >> *Can current supply meet demand?*
> > >> As the push for Universal Service continues to grow as we have seen
> from
> > >> recent trend
>
>
>
> --
> Cheers,
>
> McTim
> "A name indicates what we seek. An address indicates where it is. A route
> indicates how we get there."  Jon Postel
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-- 
Salanieta Tamanikaiwaimaro aka Sala
P.O. Box 17862
Suva
Fiji

Twitter: @SalanietaT
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