[At-Large] [lac-discuss-en] They're out of IPv4 Addresses!

Salanieta T. Tamanikaiwaimaro salanieta.tamanikaiwaimaro at gmail.com
Sun Sep 16 05:03:44 UTC 2012


Very Interesting Holly. Geoff also wrote an interesting piece on NAT and
about how they are temporary solutions, see:
http://www.cisco.com/web/about/ac123/ac147/archived_issues/ipj_7-3/anatomy.html




On Sun, Sep 16, 2012 at 1:16 PM, Holly Raiche <h.raiche at internode.on.net>wrote:

> Hi Carlton
>
> There is a twist to the IPv4/v6 discussion - and it's about money
> (surprise!)  Geoff Huston (our own internet pioneer/guru) asks why the
> carriers aren't migrating to v6 - and instead dealing with the address
> shortage (at least in the APNIC region) through NATing.  As he explains,
> with NATing, the carriers gain information about what IP addresses are
> going where - information they can flog to advertisers.  It's part of the
> money shift from the carriers in an analogue, circuit switched world where
> the carriers got the money, to an IP world where they are missing out and
> the revenue is going to the content providers. (the WCIT issue about
> accounting rates no longer providing the carriers with the money they used
> to collect is relevant here).  So the carriers are making do with NATing
> instead of migrating to the v6 world where, once again, one IP address
> connects directly to another address and no NATting (and no collecting
> information about users) in between between (except in the usual
> circumstances of corporates, etc)
>
> Holly
>
>
> On 16/09/2012, at 6:11 AM, Carlton Samuels wrote:
>
> > Hi Sala:
> > You misinterpret my skepticism as denial. Wrong.
> >
> > I'm there with you on all the facts you quote.  Yes too, on all the
> trends
> > you finger. My skepticism is born of the big 'the sky is falling'
>  hoopla.
> > And an analysis that is predicated on immediate and/or imminent scarcity.
> > [Scarcity as in demand driven!]
> >
> > For the last several years, I've studiously followed the ARIN policy
> > discussions.  Its only after you see the details and couple that to a few
> > other facts that it jumps out at ya; the details just don't support the
> > great alarm hurry-up-and-do-this.  Look critically at some of the data in
> > context of where access and demand  are growing; Africa and Asia.  Then
> > have another think.
> >
> > No, we will not have a collapse anytime soon.  No, I doubt if IPv4
> > addresses will ever be totally exhausted. At least not if some of the
> > policy positions I see being promoted in the ARIN region are implemented!
> >
> > Yes, if and when that time comes, if someone belly up to your favourite
> RIR
> > and asks for a **bank* *of addresses,  here's the likely response, "well,
> > we ain't got that kind. But here's another kind works just as well if not
> > better!  Machine you have might even be prepped for it, see.  But you
> might
> > have to do a few little things to let her fly".  That conversation will
> not
> > take place with a mom and pop operation, trust me. End user networks are
> > not provisioned as the popular myth says.
> >
> > Troll the lists and you will see this is one topic I've studiously stayed
> > away from.  Not because I don't understand the issues; I ran service
> > provisioning businesses absolutely dependent on ready availability of IP
> > addresses.  It is because I remain underwhelmed by the hype.
> >
> > The facts tend to the inconvenient.  To the hype, that is. So we are
> agreed
> > to disagree, albeit agreeably.  Nope, the hype on this is over the top.
> > And for the life of me I can't figure out why.  In the Y2K storm I knew
> > what it was; there were folks hellbent on picking some pockets.
> >
> > Maybe its because I am at a point where I've learned to distrust all
> > revealed wisdom and orthodoxy.  So I might be the heretic here.  Oh well,
> > if salvation comes......
> >
> > - Carlton
> >
> > ==============================
> > Carlton A Samuels
> > Mobile: 876-818-1799
> > *Strategy, Planning, Governance, Assessment & Turnaround*
> > =============================
> >
> >
> > On Sat, Sep 15, 2012 at 2:21 PM, Salanieta T. Tamanikaiwaimaro <
> > salanieta.tamanikaiwaimaro at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> Snip the whole thing always brings me back to that Y2K jingle.
> >>
> >> I would disagree and here's why.
> >>
> >> *Demographics*
> >> As I write this email, the world's population according to the
> Population
> >> Reference Bureau is  7,087,683,026 as at 6:18am Sunday morning on 16th
> >> September, 2012. The World Mortality Report of 2011 rates (produced by
> the
> >> Department of  Economic Social Affairs by its Population division) shows
> >> that over time the mortality rates have generally gone down although
> there
> >> are still wide disparities in levels of mortality across regions. See:
> >>
> >>
> http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldmortalityreport2011/World%20Mortality%20Report%202011.pdf
> >>
> >> *End Users*
> >> Whilst there are 7 billion people on the planet, the World Internet
> >> Statistics (IWS) suggest that there are 2,267,233,742 internet users as
> at
> >> December, 31, 2011. See: http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm.
> >>
> >> These users distributed would be something like this:-
> >> AFRALO region - 6.2%
> >> APRALO region - 49%
> >> EURALO region - 22.1%
> >> LACRALO region - 10.4%
> >> NARALO region - 12%
> >>
> >> *Can current supply meet demand?*
> >> As the push for Universal Service continues to grow as we have seen from
> >> recent trends in ICT development, liberalisation of markets,
> competition,
> >> it is generally expected that the end users will grow. There already is
> a
> >> demand on Internet Address allocations based on consumption. The pull on
> >> address spaces is also linked to "consumerism". The innovations in
> science
> >> and technology have brought us smart phones, smart computers, smart
> >> refrigerators, smart homes, smart cars means that there is a "level of
> >> demand" coming from the globe on a "finite pool of resources". We see
> >> trends where as Innovations increase eg. Applications (App) and a single
> >> phone can have an average of 5 Apps. Internet Traffic is definitely
> growing
> >> because of many reasons, the desire to communicate, content driven
> >> applications being some of the reasons. Whether it is an  entrepreneur
> away
> >> on a business trip can with a few strokes be able to check procurement
> of
> >> goods, what's in the cash register etc or a Surgeon performing remote
> tests
> >> and/or surgery, one thing is certain, consumption of the Internet will
> >> continue to grow.
> >>
> >> So the issue becomes, can "Supply meet demand"? Maybe and only for a
> little
> >> while. There are Network Address Translators (NATs) that can only do so
> >> much for a little while but all it is really at the end of the day is
> >> buying time and waiting for the inevitable which is the pool of IPv4
> >> resources will run out.
> >>
> >> *The growth in global demand to communicate implies the need for
> >> transition*
> >> For as long as the assumption is true that internet usage will grow
> there
> >> will be a strain on the address allocation. There are variables that
> affect
> >> demographics droughts, tsunamis, global food crisis, water scarcity,
> >> climate change, migration, conflicts and wars that affect demographics
> but
> >> a steward and in this case RIPE NCC will try to ensure that there is
> >> sufficient preparation that existing resources are conserved within
> reason
> >> and at the same time encourage transition.
> >>
> >> The threat aside from running out of internet addresses on the IPv4
> front
> >> is the ability for Networks not to be able to communicate. The IPv4
> Network
> >> cannot communicate with the IPv6 and there are ways to address these
> where
> >> network owners can elect to opt for which ever methods of transition
> suits
> >> them.
> >>
> >> Fortunately, the good news is that to be able to account for the current
> >> and future demands on address space allocations, the IPv6 address
> >> allocations were designed to enable seamless communication. So the only
> >> challenge now is organising IPv4 to IPv6 transition. The key word is a
> >> transition. As for end users there are many things that we can do as
> >> ordinary end users to help prepare for the transition but that is for
> >> another time.
> >>
> >> Whilst some may say, that it's just vendors trying to sell their wares.
> The
> >> reality is that vendors will always try to sell their wares and you can
> >> help keep them accountable by getting your region and network providers
> to
> >> publish feedback on their wares See:
> >>
> >>
> http://labs.ripe.net/Members/mirjam/ipv6-cpe-survey-updated-january-2011/?searchterm=None
> >>
> >> Best Regards,
> >> Sala
> >> _______________________________________________
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> >> https://atlarge-lists.icann.org/mailman/listinfo/lac-discuss-en
> >>
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>


-- 
Salanieta Tamanikaiwaimaro aka Sala
P.O. Box 17862
Suva
Fiji

Twitter: @SalanietaT
Skype:Salanieta.Tamanikaiwaimaro
Fiji Cell: +679 998 2851



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