[ALAC] 45 days remaining supply of IPV4?

James Seng james.seng at gmail.com
Tue Jan 4 01:16:35 UTC 2011


It isn't as bad as most thinks....IANA may be exhausted but the RIRs
have reserves. And even RIRs runs out, the ISPs have their buffer.
This will drag out for another 4-5 years at least before the Internet
users is going to feel an effect of IANA exhaustion in Feb/Jun/Dec
(pick your prediction, but definitely within 2011).

This is not to say we do not do anything about it (we should!) but
there is plenty of time and not panic about it yet.

-James Seng

On Tue, Jan 4, 2011 at 7:04 AM, Olivier MJ Crepin-Leblond <ocl at gih.com> wrote:
>
>
> Le 03/01/2011 22:42, Evan Leibovitch a écrit :
>> Here's one online tool predicting an IANA exhaustion date of Feb 20, 2011
>> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
>>
>
> I suppose all predictions are going to be highly inaccurate. The closer
> you get to an event, the less likely you are to be able to predict it.
> Take the weather, for example, you'll be perfectly happy with a
> prediction about the average temperature predicted for next July, but
> entirely dissatisfied if you're told it will be sunny tomorrow and it
> rains. The weather service makes these mistakes all the time because it
> is easier for them to work on macro analysis based on statistics than
> micro analysis based on today's data.
> All to say that a prediction date will be highly affected by the way
> each block will be allocated. delegate a chunk, and the date jumps forward.
>
> One thing is for sure: we, Internet users, are in serious trouble,
> probably worse than anyone has ever led you to believe.
> We *are* going to hit the wall. It *is* going to hurt. Fingers *will* be
> pointed at the incompetence of CIOs to realise this in time. And yes,
> users *will* foot the bill.
>
> Sorry to be so dull.
>
> Olivier
>
> --
> Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond, PhD
> http://www.gih.com/ocl.html
>
>
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