[ALAC] 45 days remaining supply of IPV4?

Olivier MJ Crepin-Leblond ocl at gih.com
Mon Jan 3 23:04:46 UTC 2011

Le 03/01/2011 22:42, Evan Leibovitch a écrit :
> Here's one online tool predicting an IANA exhaustion date of Feb 20, 2011
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/

I suppose all predictions are going to be highly inaccurate. The closer
you get to an event, the less likely you are to be able to predict it.
Take the weather, for example, you'll be perfectly happy with a
prediction about the average temperature predicted for next July, but
entirely dissatisfied if you're told it will be sunny tomorrow and it
rains. The weather service makes these mistakes all the time because it
is easier for them to work on macro analysis based on statistics than
micro analysis based on today's data.
All to say that a prediction date will be highly affected by the way
each block will be allocated. delegate a chunk, and the date jumps forward.

One thing is for sure: we, Internet users, are in serious trouble,
probably worse than anyone has ever led you to believe.
We *are* going to hit the wall. It *is* going to hurt. Fingers *will* be
pointed at the incompetence of CIOs to realise this in time. And yes,
users *will* foot the bill.

Sorry to be so dull.


Olivier MJ Crépin-Leblond, PhD

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